ECONOMIC WARFARE IN THE BLACK SEA: A GEOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COERCION THROUGH GRAIN, BLOCKADES, AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Abstract

This article examines economic warfare in the Black Sea as a geoeconomic contest over three interdependent systems: (i) grain and agri‑food logistics, (ii) maritime trade and insurance, and (iii) offshore and coastal energy infrastructure. Using open‑source process tracing and qualitative document analysis of peer‑reviewed studies, official datasets and reports, and policy assessments published primarily in 2022–2025, the paper reconstructs how coercive actions in one domain propagate through shipping routes, risk pricing, and energy‑security expectations. Three mechanisms are identified. First, disruption of export corridors reconfigures the distribution of bargaining power by raising transaction costs and amplifying domestic price discounts for Ukrainian producers. Second, war‑risk and sanctions compliance convert military pressure into insurance and financing constraints that shift trade away from the Black Sea and towards longer, costlier routes. Third, repeated attacks and hybrid interference against energy assets increase systemic uncertainty and alter investment and resilience decisions well beyond the immediate theatre. The article argues that these mechanisms operate as mutually reinforcing channels of coercion: the effect is not only the denial of specific cargo flows or megawatts, but the strategic manipulation of expectations and contractual risk allocation in regional markets. The contribution is conceptual and policy‑relevant: it specifies observable indicators for tracing economic coercion in maritime regions and delineates boundary conditions, limitations, and alternative interpretations for causal claims in open‑source research.