THE WEAPONIZATION OF INTERDEPENDENCE: ENERGY SECURITY AND THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE GREEN TRANSITION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54658/ps.28153324.2026.15.1.pp.22-34Keywords:
critical raw materials, energy security, weaponization of the supply chain, strategic autonomy, green transition, interdependence theory, mercantilist realismAbstract
The dominant narrative considers the green energy transition as a direction to energy autonomy and less geopolitical antagonism. This article questions that assumption. Based on US Geological Survey data on mineral production, trade flow statistics of the UN Comtrade database, and with the help of the International Energy Agency projections, this paper uses Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) analysis to measure the concentration of three key raw materials lithium, cobalt, and graphite. The comparative case study of EU and US legislative reactions, in particular, the Critical Raw Materials Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, charts the policy architecture of de-risking. Results indicate that the midstream processing segment of CRM supply chains is more concentrated than petroleum during the OPEC period with one jurisdiction dominating between 58 and 87 percent of all battery-grade material refining worldwide. The discussion puts these findings into the context of the interdependence theory of Keohane and Nye, that the transition is not a liquidation of energy-based power asymmetries but a reorganization into more inflexible, less replaceable choke points. The article concludes that strategic pluralism in response to supply chain weaponization in the emerging mineral-security order is the only possible option; that is, diversifying not only suppliers but also the underlying technologies.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Katarzyna Tamara Rud
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