RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN SYRIA AND CONCEPTUAL THREATS TO BULGARIA'S NATIONAL SECURITY

Abstract

The article represents a retrospective analysis of the military-political and geostrategic dynamics in Syria. The author seeks to identify the major driving forces influencing the development, the repercussions, and the outcome of the internal confrontations that have been ravaging the Syrian society throughout history. The article argues that, depending on the geopolitical and historical context, these forces would either instigate conflict, or be a converging factor around common national interest. Similarly, they would generate long-term tension and pave the way to foreign intervention, or instead, if steered in that direction, they would lead to temporary appeasement and reconciliation. Furthermore, the Salafi jihadist movements, their inception and activities are described as one of the recent driving forces shaping the current security environment in Syria. The article concludes with the affirmation that revealing the ex-post mechanism of the geopolitical factors is a way to forecast their future development, thus uncovering the emergence of potential threats to the national security of Bulgaria. Finally, the infiltration of foreign fighters, radicalization, and soft targets are highlighted as the gravest possible threats requiring a clear precautionary response.